The unemployment statistics are shocking, here are some recent July updates in quick numbers:
Employers added 4.8 million jobs in May, 2.7 million jobs in June, and 1.8 million jobs in July
The above means that only about 40% of those who lost jobs during the first two months of the quarantine have them back
The unemployment rate is currently at 10.2%. This is a drop from 11.1% last month, but still higher than the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. During that crash, the highest peak was 10.0% in October 2009.
What do you think of these numbers? How do you think these stats will change in the coming months, or do you expect it to take years to return as suggested in the article? Do you know anyone who has been laid off or furloughed in the past few months?
These are some troubling numbers. I do know a few people that have lost jobs due to the pandemic and only 1 has been lucky enough to get back into the workforce. I think taking years to recover might be a bit pessimistic. Then again, thinking the pandemic would still be an issue in August was also pessimistic. Anything is possible at this point. We can only hope that decision makers are making the right decisions, and the business are adaptable enough to pivot, and maintain enough of a profit to keep people employed.
So that’s what I thought too, Nrodi - pessimistic to think years. But if you look at the 2008 recession, that truly did take years of recovery. It took until the start of 2010 for new jobs to start being added again, and until mid-2014 to recover all of the jobs lost from the recession and get back to where we were before Dec 2007.
And then here, this old article from 2012 states that only 56% of Americans who lost their jobs Jan 2009-2011 had gotten new jobs. The majority with a pay cut.
Wow, then based on what we saw post-2008, this is certainly worrying. Hopefully the recent recovery in peoples retirement and index funds is foreshadowing a positive outcome over the next year or two.
Weekly jobless claims today jumped back over 1M. So strange to have high unemployment yet the stock market is setting records…of course, the market is forward looking so they must anticipate a recovery soon in anticipation of a Covid Vaccine?
Do you think the market could be responding to consumers purchasing from companies that have downsized in the name of Covid? Possibly resulting in fatter margins, even if the sales are numbers are not as high?